WTTC: Three Possible Outcomes for Travel and Tourism post-Covid-19

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) on Wednesday presented three possible outcomes for the travel and tourism sector as a result of the local and global travel restrictions due to Covid-19.

According to the WTTC, in the worst-case scenario, where restrictions were lifted after the summer, the impact would be more significant, putting a total of 197.5 million jobs at risk.

“We are deeply saddened by the loss of so many lives and the devastating impact on families around the world because of the Covid-19 pandemic,” WTTC President & CEO Gloria Guevara said.

Guevara added that the coronavirus has also had a crushing global socio-economic impact, which is threatening the jobs of millions of people whose very livelihoods depend upon a thriving Travel & Tourism sector for their survival.

“Unfortunately, our new modelling reveals the depth of the long-term impact facing the global Travel & Tourism industry if travel restrictions continue for an extended period of time,” she said.

The WTTC’s three possible outcomes for the Travel & Tourism sector are:

1. Worst-case scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from September for short-haul and regional travel, from October for mid-haul and from November for long-haul.
In this scenario, 197.5 million jobs could be lost in the global Travel & Tourism sector, with a loss of $5,543 billion in global GPD. Meanwhile, global international arrivals would suffer a sharp decline of 73 percent and domestic arrivals would drop by 64 percent.

2. Baseline scenario: Current restrictions starting to ease from June for regional travel, July for short-haul or regional travel; from August for mid-haul, and from September for long-haul.
In this scenario, a total of 121.1 million jobs could be lost in the global Travel & Tourism sector, with a loss of $3,435 billion in global GDP. Meanwhile, global visitor numbers would drop by 53 percent for international arrivals and by 34 percent for domestic arrivals.

3. Best-case scenario: Current measures starting to ease from June for short-haul and regional travel; from July for mid-haul and from August for long-haul.
In this scenario, a total of 98.2 million jobs could be lost in the Travel & Tourism sector, half the number in the worst-case scenario, with a loss of $2,686 billion in global GDP. Meanwhile, global visitor numbers would drop by 41 percent for international arrivals and by 26 percent for domestic arrivals.

According to the WTTC, the best-case scenario can still be achieved for the global Travel & Tourism sector if governments around the globe follow its recommended four-point plan, which includes the immediate removal and replacement of any quarantine measures, with ‘air corridors’ to countries with similar circumstances; the adoption of global health and safety protocols, such as the ‘Safe Travels’ initiative; the implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy to help contain the spread of the virus; and greater, and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a coordinated global approach to the crisis.