Consulting firm Deloitte Greece on Friday presented three alternative scenarios about how the landscape of the Greek tourism and hospitality industry might evolve in 2020 and 2021 in the new reality posed by the coronavirus pandemic.
Included in a study titled “Bringing the latest insights on the Greek Tourism & Hospitality sector – Scenarios on the impact of COVID-19”, Deloitte Greece makes speculations (not predictions) about what could happen and has developed three economic cases with a medium-term view (18-24 months).
According to Deloitte Greece, the three scenarios are designed to:
– help the sector’s business leaders and key stakeholders undertake strategic, financial, and operational planning for 2020 and 2021;
– take decisive action to respond to the shocks yet to come, and at the same time prepare for what might change in the months and years ahead;
– and question themselves and think how trends and developments we experience during the pandemic could shape what the global and Greek tourism and hospitality sector might look in the more long run.
In its first scenario, Deloitte says the pandemic is met with an increasingly effective health system and political response in Q3 2020 and there is no “second wave” and international traveling begins again aided by effective health protocols.
City hotels and summer resorts gradually open sometime in June or early July, respectively, whereas strong Government measures have positive impact.
Greek tourism rebounds to 2019 levels within 2-3 years, as international travelling returns gradually to normal and Greece increases its market share.
Deloitte’s second scenario shows the pandemic persisting as attempts to remove lockdowns in various countries result to consequent waves of the disease, even during summer.
In Greece, the disease is somewhat contained during summer but outbreaks occur from September onwards.
The economy and international travel market start to rebound late in 2020, continuing to recover slowly until the second half of 2021, as confidence gradually returns.
Greek tourism rebounds to 2019 levels in 3-4 years.
In the third and most severe scenario, Deloitte presents the epidemic continuing with severe infection rates into 2021 until either crowd immunity and/or a vaccine reduce the virality.
Rolling waves of the disease continue to rock the globe, the economy and the international markets for longer than anyone was prepared for, creating widespread social unrest and leading to increased isolationism.
Economic and international travel market recovery starts in 2022 with structural changes in the sector.
In this scenario, it takes more than 5 years for Greek tourism to rebound.
According to the consulting firm, traditionally, tourism and consequently hospitality is one of the sectors that recover quickly after a crisis and thus, it is expected that Greek tourism can rebound in 2021 if Covid-19 pandemic is eliminated promptly (e.g. successful contact tracing and quarantine measures in all countries, vaccine becomes available).
“Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if there will be any structural changes (e.g. bankruptcies of major players, hotel closures), shifts in travelers’ behavior and preferences and other long term impacts on the sector,” Deloitte Greece said.